JFI at the 2026 Global Aluminum Symposium in Miami

In February 2026, Shane Sethi, a fellow in JFI’s Financing the Energy Transition portfolio, attended the 2026 Global Aluminum Symposium hosted by S&P. The symposium covered a wide range of topics, including macroeconomic conditions, policy developments, supply-chain dynamics, and aluminum end uses, particularly in infrastructure.

Speakers included several prominent analysts and executives from across the aluminum industry, such as Paul Gruenwald, Global Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings; Jake Skelton, CEO of Emirates Global Aluminum America; Timna Tanners, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst for Metals, Mining, and Building Materials at Wells Fargo; Pierre-Charles Forest, General Manager of Atlantic Aluminum Sales and Trading at Rio Tinto; and Matt Aboud, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Development at Century Aluminum.

The event took place at a time when aluminum prices were at four-year highs, which shaped many of the discussions. Key themes included the rapid buildout of data centers and impacts on CAPEX, rising packaging costs (such as the price of beverage cans), and substitution effects within the automotive sector as manufacturers evaluate lighter-weight aluminum versus steel, especially in low-emissions transport.

A major point of focus was the “Midwest premium,” which sets the benchmark for aluminum pricing in the United States. The premium increased by approximately 155% in 2025, driven by U.S. tariffs and declining domestic aluminum inventories. Market participants closely monitored discussions around the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is scheduled for review on July 1, 2026. This high-stakes review requires the parties to confirm in writing whether to extend the agreement, which would otherwise terminate in 2036.

Emirates Global Aluminum presented its plans to build the first new primary aluminum smelter in the United States in 45 years. The proposed facility will produce billets, sheet ingots, high-purity aluminum, and foundry alloys. Once operational, it is expected to be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S. and to nearly double the nation’s domestic aluminum production capacity. The project is anticipated to create approximately 1,000 direct jobs and 1,800 indirect jobs, significantly strengthening Oklahoma’s manufacturing sector.

Finally, Paul Gruenwald emphasized that “geoeconomics” – the use of economic strength by countries to exert influence over other economies – is increasingly shaping global mineral and metal trade flows and will likely remain for years to come.

Attending the Symposium helped to advance the JFI’s work examining the rapidly changing dynamics of global mineral markets, and implications for producer countries, across the Minerals for Development portfolio.