The article, on the Child Tax Credit, covers the evidence about the benefits of the CTC, and cites JFI’s Guaranteed Income Research Associate Jack Landry on how fears of large-scale CTC-caused job loss are overblown.
Most studies forecasting the potential impacts of a permanent expansion in the U.S. predict relatively modest effects on employment as a share of the workforce, with more than 99 percent of working parents continuing to work. Expansion opponents often point to an outlier prediction from economists at the University of Chicago that a permanent expansion would lead more than a million parents to quit their jobs. But the Chicago study is far outside the consensus and relies on several implausible assumptions, including that an unrealistically high number of higher-income people would leave the workforce if the credit were expanded and that either both or neither parent in a dual-parent household would do so. In a thorough review of the Chicago study, Jack Landry of the Jain Family Institute concludes, “When subject to scrutiny, evidence predicting significant job loss is extremely thin.”
From the series: