Policy Microsimulations
Responding To the Bipartisan Child Tax Credit Expansion Critics: The Tenuous Evidence Behind Work Disincentives
Summary
The 2021 expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) caused a record drop in child poverty but was not renewed beyond 2021. Conservative critics’ main objection to the expansion was that it made parents outside the paid labor force eligible to receive the full credit, which critics claimed would cause parents to quit working. In light of this criticism, Republican and Democratic tax writers recently proposed a far more modest expansion of the Child Tax Credit. Unlike the Child Tax Credit in the American Rescue Plan, the proposed reforms maintain a close connection with work, only giving the full credit to parents with incomes upwards of $25,000. To make the credit modestly more generous, it phases in with income faster, providing a larger credit at lower income levels compared to the status quo. The legislation would also enable parents to use either their current year’s income or their income one year ago to calculate their CTC.Despite its restrained scope and bipartisan backing, the proposed reforms have still drawn opposition. Critics argue the expansion will lead parents to temporarily stop working or choose part-time over full-time jobs. Notably, many other analysts from across the political spectrum have concluded that the proposed reforms do not disincentivize work. Nonetheless, several researchers from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) claim their arguments about work disincentives have yet to be convincingly refuted and that critics are not faithfully engaging with their arguments. This report attempts to explain comprehensively why objections to the CTC reforms on the grounds of disincentivizing work are mistaken.