Series

Policy Microsimulations

This special project consists of timely briefs on live federal policy debates about changes to taxes and transfers.

Microsimulation is a commonly used tool in policy analysis to examine the poverty, distributional, and cost implications of changes to taxes and transfers. It allows us to explore the implications of benefit design (e.g. phase-ins and phase-outs) and financing choices. Although not set up to look at general equilibrium effects like a true macroeconomic model, a microsimulation gives insight into the initial, “gross” impact of a policy change.

Our initial microsimulation work focuses on the Child Tax Credit and variations, with new rounds of policy-relevant analysis to come.

Artwork: Nine patch variation with bars by Carrie Severt with photograph by Lyntha Scott Eiler.

In This Series

CTC Analysis Part 1

Assessing Non-filer Rates & Poverty Impacts for the American Rescue Plan Act’s Expanded CTC

A microsimulation of child poverty impacts and analysis of how to reach eligible non-filers for maximum poverty impacts
CTC Analysis Part 2

Reducing Refundability of the Child Tax Credit: Assessing Poverty Impacts and Trade-offs

A microsimulation brief finding that proposals to limit the refundability of the Child Tax Credit would increase child poverty by 53 percent, along with other trade-offs
CTC Analysis Part 3

Analysis of Full Refundability of the Child Tax Credit Without Expansion

Recent reports indicate that the Build Back Better legislative package will allow the increased Child Tax Credit value to continue for one year, while making its full refundability provision permanent; JFI researchers simulate the effects on poverty, costs, and racial equity
CTC Analysis Part 4

Memo: Cost Simulations of a Fully-Refundable Child Tax Credit (CTC) 2022-2031

Jack Landry and Stephen Nuñez publish ten-year CTC full refundability estimates, illustrating compromise proposals that retain CTC poverty impacts with space for other social programs
CTC Analysis Part 5

The Expanded Child Tax Credit and Parental Employment: Tenuous Evidence Points to Work Disincentives

Some academics and policymakers argue that the expanded Child Tax Credit will disincentive work; this report points out the weak evidence base for parents quitting work
CTC Analysis Part 6

Revisiting the Child Tax Credit for the Lame Duck Session: Comparing Parameters for Anti-Poverty Impacts

JFI researchers review recent CTC proposals and simulate the effects of varying key reforms that increase the policy's anti-poverty impacts, parameters which will likely feature in lame-duck negotiations.

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