Guaranteed Income
OUR MOTIVATING CHALLENGE
The US spends upwards of $400 billion every year on an extensive infrastructure of anti-poverty programs. While these programs have lifted millions of families above the poverty line, there is tremendous potential to make the safety net more effective, accessible, and cohesive. Many benefits are administered as inefficient in-kind vouchers, require complex application procedures, and either conflict with other programs or interact in ways that risk sudden loss of access.
Guaranteed income – aid in the form of unconditional cash – offers a solution to many of the core problems of the safety net. Instead of cumbersome in-kind benefits, guaranteed income provides flexible cash that empowers recipients to meet their unique needs. It eliminates unnecessary hurdles to access and replaces fragmented programs with a unified, cohesive benefit that avoids disincentives to upward mobility.
While the recent proliferation of pilots across cities and states has generated some momentum, a true guaranteed income policy at the federal or state level is highly limited by today’s political reality. Without diminishing the importance of research and advocacy over a long time horizon, there are incremental reforms, inspired by the underlying philosophy of guaranteed income, that can improve the quality of social support for low and moderate-income Americans in the short term. Without such a phased approach, we believe the energy and momentum behind unrestricted cash risks stalling.
JFI helped build the guaranteed income field from its infancy through a combination of pilot development, field research, and policy analysis. Our evolution of the Guaranteed Income portfolio recognizes that we are at an inflection point; rather than emphasizing foundational basic research on cash and guaranteed income, we aim to translate the principles of guaranteed income to an expanded set of possible complementary reforms to poverty relief and economic mobility programs.
Currently, the community of guaranteed income advocates, researchers, and policymakers have embraced certain forms of intermediate advancement—namely in the form of pilot cash demonstrations and the expanded child tax credit. These are important steps that set specific tractable and achievable targets. Our initiative aims to chart an expanded set of possible kindred policies informed by the core principles of guaranteed income.
WHAT WE DO
We pioneer research on high-impact policies to reduce poverty and facilitate upward mobility by applying the core principles of guaranteed income to improve the safety net: making more programs distribute cash, making programs more accessible, and better ensuring the plethora of individual programs create a cohesive whole. These core principles represent a continuum, not a dichotomy. Incremental reforms can move policy towards better approximating the flexibility, accessibility, and cohesiveness that guaranteed income envisions while still falling short of what staunch guaranteed income advocates would prefer. We embrace new programs to fill holes in the existing safety net, but we do not shy away from reforms of incumbent programs to make them more equitable and efficacious. Our work spans the entire continuum of policy development, from incubating novel ideas to partnering with policymakers and advocates around implementation details to turn ideas into reality.
OUR GOALS
Our goal is to transform the US safety net to reduce poverty and facilitate upward mobility by making the safety net better resemble the core principles of guaranteed income. While our applied work to date has been mostly focused on reforming tax credit programs, our future work will span across an array of different programs, from housing vouchers to disability programs to disaster assistance. Our north star is not simply research for the purpose of intellectual edification, but actual policy change. And we hope to help shape the agenda of the broader guaranteed income community towards a wide range of policy targets beyond the child tax credit and pilot demonstrations.
OUR IMPACT
Our work on guaranteed income has spanned the continuum of policy development. On the foundational research and agenda-setting front, we authored an influential series on how guaranteed income fits within the existing safety net, providing valuable conceptual clarity at a time public understanding of guaranteed income was in its infancy. We led the evaluation of one of the earliest, largest, and most rigorous randomized control trial of basic income in the US–the Compton Pledge, providing unique evidence on different designs for cash disbursement. Internationally, we evaluated one of the largest permanent Guaranteed Income programs in the world in Maricá, Brazil. And we helped popularize state level refundable child tax credits when progress on the federal credit expansion stalled, placing a pair of articles in the New York Times news and opinion section.
On the applied policy analysis side, we have provided a compendium of research on the expanded child tax credit. Our work helped clarify the debate around the extension of the expanded credit, showing what potential compromise options would retain a significant anti-poverty impact and which would mostly serve to support middle and high-income parents. At the state-level, we have provided in-depth analytical support to several successful CTC expansions. For instance, we partnered with policymakers and state-level advocates in Colorado on reforms to their child tax credit program to ensure it included all low-income children–including the design of the credit, cost estimates, and implementation concerns. The bill we helped design passed with bipartisan support, increasing benefits for over 70,000 low-income children every year. And we have helped pioneer the idea of turning housing vouchers into a more flexible cash benefit–providing detailed policy advice to the federal government and working with partners on a pilot demonstration–the housing pledge.
PARTNER WITH US
While JFI continues to share design and strategy expertise with pilots, we are increasingly focused on policy design: how cash transfers can make our social safety net work better for the working and middle classes, and what financing mechanisms can help sustain them. To that end, we provide policymakers (mayors, state legislators, economic development teams, etc.) and advocates with policy analysis, including microsimulations of proposed legislation and studies of interactions among existing programs. We are eager to partner with individuals or institutions to extend this work internationally – and to expand our field of study beyond traditional guaranteed income / UBI into other social programs (e.g. housing, healthcare) where the principles of unconditional cash may be beneficial.
PARTNERS

Guaranteed Income Tools & Resources
A collection of materials for practitioners and policymakers.
- Toolkit for creating a guaranteed income in your community: Our toolkit, published May 2021 and available here, provides a concrete starting point for anyone interested in supporting a guaranteed income for their community, particularly by launching a guaranteed income pilot. It begins by answering some of the key questions that arise in this undertaking, including what guaranteed income is, why it is gaining attention right now, what the open questions are that a pilot might answer, and what is involved in the creation of a local pilot.
- How to frame guaranteed income policy: a review of literature: This review of literature, published May 2021, covers a range of important guaranteed income messaging questions.
- Exploring a framework for federal policy: Find our white paper series, “From Idea to Reality: Getting to Guaranteed Income,” here. The series is an in depth examination into how to implement guaranteed income in the U.S.
- JFI Position on Guaranteed Income: Our research-informed guidance on basic parameters for guaranteed income.
Featured Partners
Guaranteed Income Contributors

Andrea Gama
Affiliate Researcher

Ege Aksu
Fellow

Jack Landry
Lead Researcher

Johannes Haushofer
Senior Fellow

Leah Hamilton
Senior Fellow

Marcella Cartledge
Fellow

Roberta Costa
Research Manager

Sara Franklin
Fellow

Yunjie Xie
Fellow
Related Publication Series

From Idea to Reality: Getting to Guaranteed Income

Messaging Guaranteed Income

Policy Microsimulations
Recent Updates
Editorial: The Future of Guaranteed Income Is At The Community Level
Next City op ed by Halah Ahmad, Steve Nuñez, and Hope Wollensack
HudsonUP Basic Income Pilot releases year two report
The second year’s report from the HudsonUP Basic Income Pilot, from Principal Investigator and Senior Fellow Leah Hamilton.
Revisiting the Child Tax Credit for the Lame Duck Session: Comparing Parameters for Anti-Poverty Impacts
JFI researchers review recent CTC proposals and simulate the effects of varying key reforms that increase the policy's anti-poverty impacts,...
Part of the series Policy Microsimulations
Understanding What’s Next in Cash Assistance: State-Level Expansions Through the Tax System
The “Cash Consortium” and the Urban Institute’s State and Local Finance Initiative invite you to join a virtual discussion...
Guaranteed Income as Economic Justice
Hosted in Washington, DC and featuring JFI's Halah Ahmad, this is a joint event by GHI Washington, the Kalmanovitz Initiative...
Do Basic Income Experiments Influence Policy?
A virtual and in-person panel hosted at the 2022 Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN) Congress taking place in Brisbane, Australia between...
JFI’s guaranteed income analysis in the New York Times
The article, "Guaranteed Income Programs Spread, City by City," features JFI's political economy research
The Political Economy of Guaranteed Income: Where Do We Go From Here?
This paper is the fourth and final in a series on “Getting to Guaranteed Income,” analyzing the research to date...
Part of the series From Idea to Reality: Getting to Guaranteed Income
New Release: Political economy of guaranteed income
JFI experts on guaranteed income research and policy communications close out the 'getting to guaranteed income' white paper series, including...
Halah Ahmad speaks at the BIG conference on guaranteed income pilots and policy
Ahmad spoke alongside Madeline Neighly (Economic Security Project) and Kathrine Cagat (Mayors for a Guaranteed Income)
What’s Next for Cash-Based Social Policies? Lessons from the Expanded Child Tax Credit
Join the Urban Institute and the Jain Family Institute for an event exploring key insights on the American Rescue Plan...
Sidhya Balakrishnan speaking at “Keeping it Real OC: Building Financial Strength for Vulnerable Families”
Orange County United Way hosts a "Keeping it Real OC" dialogue with a panel of experts, including JFI's Director of...
The Expanded Child Tax Credit and Parental Employment: Tenuous Evidence Points to Work Disincentives
Some academics and policymakers argue that the expanded Child Tax Credit will disincentive work; this report points out the weak...
Part of the series Policy Microsimulations
HudsonUP pilot features in The Economist
The HudsonUP Basic Income Pilot has completed one year of payments to its initial 25-person cohort; one recipient shares his...
Stephen Nuñez speaks to The Hill about the Child Tax Credit
Nuñez's comments are informed by microsimulation work with Jack Landry on the impacts of the expanded Child Tax Credit
Bloomberg: “The Year Basic Income Programs Went Mainstream”
Stephen Nuñez speaks on what we know, and what we don't, from guaranteed income pilots
JFI microsimulations in Congressional testimony, Congressional Research Service FAQ
"Assessing Non-Filer Rates," JFI's first microsimulation brief, in testimony to Select Subcommittee Committee on the Coronavirus Crisis
Jordan Weissmann, Matt Yglesias cover JFI’s microsimulation briefs
JFI's microsimulations provide rapid analysis in response to federal policy debates about the Child Tax Credit
JFI’s Claudia Sahm provides insights on macroeconomic and Fed trends
Featured in the Washington Post, Vox, Bloomberg and elsewhere, Sahm discusses short-run inflation, changing Fed policy, and monetary policy trends
Memo: Cost Simulations of a Fully-Refundable Child Tax Credit (CTC) 2022-2031
Jack Landry and Stephen Nuñez publish ten-year CTC full refundability estimates, illustrating compromise proposals that retain CTC poverty impacts...
Part of the series Policy Microsimulations
HudsonUP Basic Income Pilot releases year one report; Fast Company coverage
JFI Senior Fellow Leah Hamilton presents early results of the five-year basic income pilot in Hudson, NY with effects on...
Research Session: A Critical Review of Macroeconomic Models for Guaranteed Income & the Child Tax Credit
Hourlong session on Friday, Nov 19 at 3pm ET
Claudia Sahm on evidence for $1400 relief and recovery checks
Drawing on over a decade of research, JFI Senior Fellow Claudia Sahm presents evidence in favor of additional $1400 checks for...
“Analysis of Full Refundability of the Child Tax Credit Without Expansion” covered in Huffpost, CNBC
Microsimulation work from Jack Landry and Stephen Nuñez shows significant child poverty reductions